Senegal is once again attempting to turn the page on one of Africa’s longest-running conflicts. This week, the government signed a peace agreement with a faction of the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC), the separatist group that has waged an insurgency in the country’s southern Casamance region for over four decades. The deal, hailed by officials as a significant breakthrough, includes provisions for pardoning imprisoned rebels and supporting the social reintegration of others. Yet, despite the optimism in Dakar, doubts remain about whether this agreement will bring lasting peace to the troubled region.
The conflict in Casamance, which began in 1982, has its roots in long-standing grievances over marginalization and autonomy. Although the fighting has subsided in recent years, intermittent violence, landmine incidents, and sporadic clashes between government forces and rebel factions have continued to undermine stability. Several previous peace efforts have failed, either due to factional disputes within the MFDC or a lack of follow-through from the authorities. This latest agreement marks another attempt to put the conflict to rest—but whether it succeeds remains an open question.
One of the biggest concerns surrounding the deal is its scope. While the government has reached an understanding with one faction of the MFDC, it does not encompass all elements of the fragmented rebel movement. Notably, influential MFDC leader Salif Sadio, who commands one of the most militarized wings of the separatists, has not signed onto the accord. Without the participation of all major factions, some analysts fear that violence could persist, even if at a lower intensity.
Another sticking point is the failure to fully address the root causes of the conflict. Casamance has long been considered Senegal’s neglected region, despite its rich agricultural resources. Many locals argue that economic underdevelopment, land disputes, and political marginalization fueled the rebellion in the first place. While this agreement focuses on demobilization and reintegration, critics point out that it lacks clear commitments for long-term economic investments or political reforms that could prevent future unrest.
For the government of President Macky Sall, brokering a peace deal ahead of the upcoming elections carries undeniable political weight. It allows the administration to present itself as a peacemaker, keen on stabilizing a region that has long been an outlier in an otherwise politically stable country. However, some opposition figures and civil society activists remain skeptical, warning that the government’s primary aim may be optics rather than a genuine resolution to the Casamance issue.
The international community has cautiously welcomed the agreement, recognizing its potential while acknowledging the remaining challenges. Neighboring Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, both of which have been affected by the conflict through refugee flows and occasional rebel incursions, have expressed their support for the peace initiative. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has also encouraged further dialogue to bring all rebel factions into the fold.
On the ground in Casamance, reactions are mixed. Some residents see the deal as a step in the right direction, hopeful that it will bring much-needed security and economic opportunities. Others, however, remain wary, having seen past truces unravel before real change could take root. “We have seen agreements come and go, but nothing changes for the people,” said one local farmer. “Until we see development in our region, we won’t believe the war is truly over.”
As the dust settles on this latest chapter of peace efforts, all eyes will be on the implementation phase. Will the government follow through on promises to support ex-rebels and invest in Casamance’s development? Will the MFDC’s other factions eventually come to the table? Or is this just another pause in a conflict that has defied resolution for over 40 years? For now, Senegal is gambling on peace—but whether it pays off remains to be seen.
