In Conakry, the air is thick with political anticipation. Posters adorn walls, radios buzz with heated debates, and citizens queue at voter registration centers. Guinea is on the cusp of a vote that could fundamentally reshape its political landscape — a constitutional referendum that would allow Lt. Col. Mamady Doumbouya, the charismatic coup leader who seized power in 2021, to run for president in upcoming elections. For many Guineans, this is not just another vote but a defining moment that could either set the nation on a path to stability or entrench a new brand of personalized rule.
Doumbouya, a former French Legionnaire who ousted long-time president Alpha Condé, promised to lead a transition back to democracy. His military government has since overseen a series of reforms, including anti-corruption campaigns and security sector shake-ups, earning cautious praise from international observers. Yet, the proposed constitution has raised alarms among opposition parties and civil society groups. Critics warn that Doumbouya is using the transition period to cement his own grip on power under the veneer of legitimacy.
“This referendum is a clever trick,” says Dr. Ibrahima Diallo, a political analyst based in Conakry. “It gives Doumbouya the appearance of respecting democratic norms while rewriting the rules to favor himself.” The draft constitution not only allows him to run for president but also resets term limits, potentially granting him the ability to remain in office for a decade or more. For many, this looks eerily similar to the constitutional tinkering that allowed Condé to secure a controversial third term — a move that sparked protests and ultimately set the stage for the 2021 coup.
Supporters of the referendum see things differently. They argue that Guinea needs continuity to consolidate the gains of the past three years. “Doumbouya brought stability after years of turmoil,” says Fanta Camara, a market trader in Conakry. “He deserves a chance to finish what he started.” This sentiment is shared by many young Guineans who credit the junta with improving public security and investing in infrastructure projects that had long been stalled.
International actors are watching closely. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has urged Guinea to stick to its agreed transition timetable, which envisages a return to civilian rule within a set period. The African Union and the United Nations have echoed those calls, warning that extending military rule — even through a referendum — risks undermining regional stability.
At street level, the mood is tense. Opposition coalitions have vowed to boycott the vote and are calling for mass demonstrations. Security forces have been deployed in key cities to prevent unrest, raising fears of a repeat of past clashes in which dozens were killed. “People are scared,” says Aminata Bah, a human rights activist. “They want their voices heard but fear the price of speaking out.”
Economically, Guinea is at a crossroads. The country is rich in bauxite, gold, and iron ore, but decades of mismanagement and political instability have left much of the population in poverty. Investors are keenly following the political developments, wary that prolonged unrest could disrupt mining operations that are vital to Guinea’s economy and global aluminum supply chains.
As referendum day approaches, one thing is clear: Guinea stands at a pivotal moment. Whether this vote ushers in a new era of democratic renewal or simply rebrands military rule will depend not just on the outcome of the ballot box, but on how inclusive and transparent the process proves to be. For now, Guineans must weigh a difficult choice — embrace Doumbouya’s promise of continuity or resist what they see as a slow slide back into authoritarianism.
When the ballots are counted, the result will reverberate beyond Guinea’s borders, offering either a hopeful example of post-coup democratization or a cautionary tale of how power, once seized, is rarely relinquished without a fight.
