Introduction
North Africa’s rainy season, from November to March, brings much-needed water to countries like Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. This rainfall supports farming, replenishes water reserves, and sustains ecosystems. However, climate change and shifting weather patterns are making it harder to predict how much rain will fall. In this article, we’ll explore what the 2025 rainy season might look like, why it matters, and how people can prepare. While exact forecasts aren’t available yet, we’ll use current trends and science to give you a clear picture.
When and Where Does It Rain?
The rainy season in North Africa happens during the cooler months, from November to March. Coastal areas, like Tunis in Tunisia or Alexandria in Egypt, get more rain because they’re close to the Mediterranean Sea. Tunis sees about 300–500 mm of rain each year, while Alexandria receives around 200 mm. Inland spots, like Cairo, are much drier, with only about 25 mm annually. This difference matters—coastal farmers rely on rain for crops, while inland communities often struggle with water shortages.
For example, a farmer in Morocco’s coastal plains might see enough rain to grow wheat, while someone near the Sahara Desert might barely get a sprinkle. Understanding these patterns helps us guess what 2025 might bring.
What’s Happening with the Climate?
Climate change is having a significant impact on North Africa. Over the past few years, rainfall has been below average. In 2023 and 2024, Morocco and Tunisia experienced severe droughts, resulting in harvest reductions of up to 42%, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Hotter temperatures and less rain are becoming the norm, and experts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say this trend might continue.
Think of it like a bucket with a slow leak—less water comes in, and more evaporates. This affects everything from drinking water to food prices. For 2025, this suggests we might see another dry year unless something unexpected shifts the weather.
What Could Affect Rainfall in 2025?
Scientists examine significant weather patterns to predict rainfall. Here are two key players:
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): This is like a seesaw for weather. When it’s “negative,” more rain can reach North Africa. When it’s “positive,” it stays drier. We won’t know its state until closer to winter 2025, but it’s a significant clue.
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): This pattern in the Pacific Ocean can tweak weather worldwide. Right now, it’s neutral and likely to stay that way through 2025, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That means it probably won’t push extra rain our way.
Without exact forecasts yet (it’s only May 2025!), we can still make educated guesses. Recent dry years point to below-average rain, but a surprise shift in the NAO could bring wetter conditions.
What Might Happen in 2025?
Based on trends, here’s what could happen:
- Less Rain: If droughts continue, coastal areas might get some water, but inland regions could stay parched. This would harm crops such as barley and olives, particularly in Morocco.
- Normal Rain: If weather patterns balance out, coastal cities could see typical amounts—enough to help, but not solve all problems.
- More Rain: A rare wet season could refill reservoirs and boost farming, though heavy rain might also cause floods in cities like Tunis.
For example, in 2022, Tunisia experienced sudden floods following dry spells, which caught people off guard. Planning for both possibilities is key.
Why Does This Matter?
Rain—or the lack of it—changes lives. Less water means smaller harvests, higher food costs, and tougher days for farmers. In dry years, families may move to cities in search of work, straining local resources. On the flip side, too much rain can flood homes and roads. Either way, North Africa needs to be ready.
Take Morocco: its dams supply water for cities and farms. If they don’t fill up in 2025, tough choices loom—like deciding between tap water or irrigation.
How to Prepare
Here’s what people and leaders can do:
- Stay Informed: Check updates from the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) or WMO as November 2025 nears.
- Save Water: Farmers can switch to crops that need less water, like sorghum, and use drip irrigation to stretch every drop.
- Plan: Cities can improve drainage to handle floods, while rural areas stockpile supplies for dry spells.
For instance, a Tunisian farmer told Agro Climate News in 2024, “We started planting drought-hardy seeds last year, and it saved us.” Small steps can make a big difference.
Conclusion
The 2025 rainy season in North Africa is a question mark for now, but signs point to less rain due to climate change. Coastal areas might fare better than inland ones, yet everyone faces risks. By watching forecasts and preparing smartly, North Africans can weather whatever comes. Keep an eye on updates from trusted sources like ACMAD—they’ll give the latest as the season approaches.
