While missiles and diplomatic volleys dominate headlines between Israel and Iran, African economies are taking shrapnel in the form of rising oil prices — and it’s beginning to sting. As geopolitical tensions flare in the Middle East, the cost of crude oil has surged to its highest levels in over a year, driving up transport, food, and energy costs across much of the African continent.
The Israel–Iran confrontation, though geographically distant from Africa, exerts outsized influence on the continent’s economies, which remain highly vulnerable to global commodity fluctuations. Oil-producing nations like Nigeria and Angola may benefit from higher revenues, but for the majority of African countries — net oil importers with fragile currencies — the spike in oil prices spells fiscal headaches and social unease.
South Africa, already grappling with inflationary pressure and an underperforming rand, has seen fuel prices jump by nearly 12% in the past month. Public taxi operators, responsible for ferrying millions of South Africans daily, are threatening fare hikes unless the government offers relief. That, in turn, risks igniting the kind of cost-of-living protests that have already rattled cities from Johannesburg to Mombasa.
Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa have both weighed in diplomatically, calling for de-escalation in the Middle East and stressing that Africa should not be a casualty in foreign wars. “We are paying the price for battles we did not start and cannot end,” Ramaphosa remarked during a press briefing in Pretoria. His comment resonated across the continent, especially among policymakers desperate to stabilize domestic inflation.
The African Development Bank recently warned that the current price spike could erode gains made in food security and macroeconomic recovery post-COVID. Countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Senegal, already suffering from currency depreciation and mounting debt burdens, now face the added strain of higher import bills — not just for oil, but for everything that depends on fuel: fertilizer, medicine, and even school transport.
While oil exporters like Algeria and Libya may be counting the cash, the long-term picture isn’t all rosy even for them. Instability in global oil routes — particularly if Iran threatens the Strait of Hormuz or Israel ramps up regional strikes — could lead to shipping insurance premiums, logistical delays, or even attacks on tankers. In that scenario, everyone loses.
Ordinary Africans are certainly not immune. In Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre, taxi drivers have cut routes or doubled fares. In Accra, Ghana, food vendors are paying more to transport goods from farms to markets. And in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, electricity bills are creeping up as power plants pass on diesel costs to consumers.
Regional economic bodies are scrambling for solutions. The East African Community is reportedly in talks about pooled fuel reserves, while the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is mulling a temporary cap on petrol taxes. But critics argue these are mere stopgaps that won’t solve the deeper problem: Africa’s over-reliance on imported energy and underinvestment in refining capacity.
Indeed, the crisis has reawakened calls for structural reform. Many African nations sit on substantial oil and gas reserves, but decades of mismanagement, corruption, and political volatility have prevented them from fully capitalizing. Nigeria, for example, exports crude but imports most of its refined petrol. Angola is in a similar bind. Mozambique, blessed with natural gas off its northern coast, has seen its plans derailed by insurgency.
In the long run, say analysts, Africa must diversify its energy sources, invest in refineries, and fast-track renewable alternatives. But in the short term, it’s stuck at the pump — and paying dearly.
It’s a cruel irony that a continent with abundant natural resources continues to suffer from the ripple effects of geopolitical decisions made thousands of miles away. As the Israel–Iran feud flares on, one thing is clear: oil may be global, but pain is always local.
