At the age of 92, Paul Biya stands on the brink of securing yet another term as Cameroon’s president, a position he has held since 1982, making him the longest-serving leader in Africa and one of the oldest heads of state globally. His grip on power, fortified by decades of institutional control and strategic alliances, appears unshakeable. However, beneath this veneer of inevitability lies a brewing storm of uncertainty, driven by his advanced age, health concerns, and the glaring absence of a clear successor. As the nation approaches the presidential election scheduled for October 12, 2025, the predictable victory for Biya and his ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) party masks deeper fractures that could erupt into widespread instability, exacerbating existing crises in a country once viewed as a beacon of relative stability in Central Africa.
A Nation on the Edge: Contextualizing Cameroon’s Current Landscape
Cameroon, a nation of approximately 30 million people situated on the Gulf of Guinea and sharing borders with Nigeria, Chad, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and the Republic of the Congo, boasts a diverse landscape that ranges from coastal plains to mountainous highlands and dense rainforests. This geographical variety mirrors its ethnic and linguistic diversity, with over 250 ethnic groups and two official languages—French and English—stemming from its colonial history under German, French, and British rule. The upcoming election, the first since the controversial 2018 vote that extended Biya’s rule amid widespread allegations of fraud, comes at a time when the country grapples with multiple overlapping challenges. These include a protracted separatist conflict in the English-speaking regions, persistent insurgencies in the Far North from groups like Boko Haram, economic stagnation, and a youth bulge facing high unemployment rates. Recent developments, such as Biya’s rare public appearance at a campaign rally in Maroua in the Far North region, underscore his continued determination to lead, even as critics question his physical capacity and relevance in addressing these pressing issues.
The electoral process has already been tainted by irregularities, including the blatant misuse of state resources to bolster the CPDM’s campaign efforts and systematic interference in opposition activities. Reports of restricted rallies for challengers, coupled with the rejection of prominent opposition candidacies, suggest a tilted playing field designed to ensure Biya’s triumph. For instance, Maurice Kamto, who posed a significant threat in 2018 by mobilizing support from the Bamileke ethnic group—a community that dominates commerce but has historically been marginalized politically—has been sidelined, fueling accusations of targeted exclusion and rising anti-Bamileke rhetoric. Despite these manipulations, Biya’s victory seems assured, marking his sixth win since multiparty elections were introduced in 1990. This outcome would extend his tenure to over 50 years in high office, including his time as prime minister, and see him potentially governing until the age of 99.
Shadows of Frailty: Health Speculations and Absent Leadership
Concerns about Biya’s fitness to rule have intensified in recent years, amplified by his infrequent public engagements and prolonged absences from the country. Visibly frail, Biya has struggled with mobility, as evidenced by viral footage from international summits where he appeared disoriented or required assistance. A notable incident in 2022 captured him on a hot mic expressing confusion about his location, sparking widespread speculation about his mental acuity. Adding to the intrigue, Biya was abroad in Switzerland at the onset of the official campaign period, ostensibly for a private visit that many believe involved medical treatment. Switzerland, particularly Geneva, has long been his preferred destination for healthcare and leisure, with estimates suggesting he has spent a cumulative number of years there since the 1980s. Official narratives often describe these trips as “brief private visits,” but they have earned him the moniker of running Cameroon from afar. This practice has left domestic governance in a state of limbo during critical periods.
Compounding these personal vulnerabilities are the multifaceted crises plaguing Cameroon, which have eroded public confidence and highlighted the government’s paralysis. In the Anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions, what began as peaceful protests by teachers and lawyers in 2016 to preserve English-language institutions has escalated into a full-blown separatist war, displacing hundreds of thousands and claiming thousands of lives. The government’s heavy-handed response, including military operations and allegations of human rights abuses, has only deepened the divide. Meanwhile, in the Far North, the ongoing threat from Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province persists, fueled by extreme poverty and a securitized approach that neglects underlying socioeconomic issues. Urban areas are witnessing surges in gang violence, femicide, and other crimes. At the same time, national challenges such as delayed teacher salaries—amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars—and a dysfunctional national ID card system have sparked recurring strikes, leaving citizens unable to access essential services.
Economic Strains and Social Unrest: The Broader Crisis Spectrum
Economic woes further strain the social fabric. Despite possessing abundant natural resources, including oil, timber, and minerals, Cameroon relies heavily on food imports, which exacerbates its vulnerability to global price fluctuations. Poverty rates have risen, with slow growth failing to keep pace with a youthful population where over 60 percent are under 25. Youth unemployment, a ticking time bomb, has become a central campaign issue, with Biya himself pledging to prioritize job creation and anti-corruption measures in recent speeches. However, skepticism abounds, given the track record of unfulfilled promises. Biya’s absences have only worsened these problems; he delivers just three annual addresses and has been notably missing during key moments, such as a month-long disappearance in 2024 that prompted death rumors. The government’s response—declaring his health a “national security” matter and criminalizing discussions about it—did little to quell speculation, instead igniting internal jockeying for position among potential successors.
From Independence to Autocracy: Historical Foundations of Biya’s Rule
To understand the roots of this predicament, it is necessary to delve into Cameroon’s post-independence history. In 1982, the country’s first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, resigned, citing health reasons, paving the way for Biya, his prime minister, to ascend to the presidency. Ahidjo had established a one-party state under the Cameroon National Union (CNU) in 1966, suppressing dissent to maintain unity in a diverse nation. Biya, however, took consolidation further, replacing the CNU with the CPDM and purging Ahidjo’s northern allies following coup attempts. This shift reoriented power from the Muslim-dominated North to Biya’s Christian South, sowing seeds of regional resentment that linger today. Northerners were systematically removed from key military and government posts, leading to exiles and imprisonments.
In an attempt to mask this centralization, Biya appointed symbolic figures from various regions, but these roles lacked real influence. The introduction of multiparty politics in 1990, amid global democratic waves and domestic pressures, exposed the CPDM’s vulnerabilities. Cameroon’s ethnic mosaic, categorized into five ethno-regional groups, was reflected in the 1992 election, where Biya secured a narrow win with approximately 40 percent of the vote amid irregularities. The opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF) dominated the Anglophone West, while the National Union for Democracy and Progress (UNDP) swept the North. Realizing the need for broader alliances, Biya co-opted northern leaders like Bello Bouba Maigari and Issa Tchiroma, who had been exiled or imprisoned, integrating them into government to secure northern votes through patronage.
Electoral Dominance and Suppressed Succession: The Mechanics of Power Retention
This strategy, combined with electoral manipulation and crackdowns on dissent, ensured Biya’s dominance in subsequent elections, where no opponent exceeded 20 percent of the vote. Discussions of succession were taboo within the CPDM, with the party forgoing leadership conferences and effectively enshrining Biya as its leader for life. Ambitious figures who hinted at their aspirations often faced abrupt dismissals and dubious charges. The result is a “one-man show” government, where Biya’s prolonged absences since 2021 have led to unfilled ministerial posts—four ministers have died without replacements—and stalled state functions, including investigations into high-profile cases like the 2023 murder of journalist Martinez Zogo, which devolved into internal vendettas.
Internal Fractures Emerge: Challenges Within the Ruling Elite
Recent fissures within the CPDM signal the unraveling of this facade. Speculation around Biya’s son, Franck, as a potential heir emerged when he returned from abroad in 2020 and took an advisory role, but resistance to dynastic succession from party elites seeking regional balance prompted his retreat. More overtly, CPDM insiders have voiced opposition to Biya’s candidacy, with a councilor challenging his party chairmanship in court—a rare act of defiance. The most significant blow came in June when Maigari and Tchiroma, pivotal to northern support, announced their own bids, fracturing the presidential majority alliance and diminishing the CPDM’s prospects in the North.
Rigged for Continuity: The Machinery Behind an Assured Victory
Despite these setbacks, Biya’s machinery remains formidable. State institutions, including the ostensibly independent Elections Cameroon (ELECAM) and Constitutional Council, have aligned with the CPDM, with their leaders attending ruling party events. Opposition suppression continues: Tchiroma’s rallies in northern strongholds have been barred, and his travel has been restricted. ELECAM’s rejection of Kamto’s candidacy removes a key mobilizer, while the opposition’s fragmentation—marked by clashing egos and government interference—prevents a unified front. Numerous challengers, including experienced parliamentarian Tomaino Ndam Njoya, who brings international credibility and focuses on gender issues, and others, such as Cabral Libii, who tours grassroots areas, dilute the anti-Biya vote.
Looming Instability: The Perils of Postponed Succession
A Biya victory, while extending short-term stability, would amplify long-term risks. Should he die in office—a plausible scenario given his age—the Constitution mandates that the Senate president, 90-year-old Marcel Niat Njifenji, serve as interim leader, with a new election held within 120 days. Njifenji’s own frailty raises doubts about his endurance. Internal party divisions, particularly regional grievances over the South’s disproportionate benefits, have escalated, with figures from the first lady to top officials engaging in succession battles tied to ethnic loyalties.
These tensions revive historical North-South divides, rooted in colonial legacies and disputes over resource allocation, which Biya once subdued through co-optation. The alliance’s collapse has reignited calls for power to return to the North, amid accusations of unreciprocated loyalty. Public hostility is mounting, with reports of citizens tearing down CPDM posters in cities such as Douala and Yaoundé, and massive crowds gathering at ELECAM offices to collect voter cards, indicating heightened engagement—or frustration—among the youth.
Toward an Uncertain Horizon: The Risks of Inevitable Change
Returning Biya to power merely postpones the inevitable succession crisis, intensifying infighting that has already paralyzed governance and unearthed decades-old grievances. A unified opposition or a graceful exit might have steered the country toward stability, but instead, Cameroon teeters on the edge of a volatile transition. With tensions at their peak, the post-Biya era risks descending into chaos, with profound implications for regional security and economic progress—a tragic outcome that could have been averted through genuine democratic reform.
