For three decades, the African National Congress (ANC) didn’t just govern South Africa—it was South Africa. The party that ended apartheid, the party of Mandela, the party that could do no wrong in the eyes of millions, has finally been cut down to size. The 2024 elections delivered a political earthquake: the ANC, which once commanded a near-supermajority, has been reduced to just 40% of the vote. Now, for the first time in history, the liberation movement must share power—or risk becoming irrelevant.
How Did We Get Here?
The ANC’s decline wasn’t sudden; it was a slow-motion car crash. Under Jacob Zuma, corruption became institutionalized, with state capture bleeding billions from Eskom, Transnet, and other critical institutions. Cyril Ramaphosa, the man brought in to clean house, proved better at PowerPoint presentations than actual reform. Load-shedding (rolling blackouts) became a daily nightmare, unemployment hit a staggering 32%, and violent crime turned cities into no-go zones. The final straw? A younger generation—too young to remember apartheid—started asking: What has the ANC done for us lately?
The Coalition Circus Begins
Now, the ANC is stuck in a political purgatory where every potential ally comes with baggage. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the largest opposition party, is the most obvious partner—but it’s a bitter pill for the ANC to swallow. The DA, historically seen as a “white party” (despite its multiracial leadership), champions free-market policies that clash with the ANC’s socialist roots. Yet, without them, Ramaphosa has no path to a majority.
Then there’s the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), Julius Malema’s radical left-wing movement that wants to nationalize mines and redistribute land. The ANC could theoretically team up with them, but that would trigger an investor panic worse than a rand crash. The EFF’s theatrics—Malema once threatened to “take up arms” if he didn’t get his way—make them a volatile partner.
And let’s not forget the smaller parties: the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), a Zulu nationalist group, and the MK Party, Jacob Zuma’s new rebel faction. Both demand concessions, from cabinet seats to policy shifts, turning coalition talks into a political flea market where everything is for sale.
The Real Sticking Point: Who Gets What?
This isn’t just about ideology—it’s about jobs. The ANC’s patronage network relies on controlling ministries to dole out positions to loyalists. The DA, meanwhile, wants key economic portfolios (finance, energy, trade) to block further looting. If the ANC gives in, it risks alienating its own cadres; if it doesn’t, the coalition collapses.
Meanwhile, ordinary South Africans are watching with a mix of hope and dread. Will a coalition actually fix the country’s problems—or just be another elite power-sharing deal that changes nothing?
A Stress Test for Democracy
South Africa isn’t just negotiating a government—it’s testing whether a post-liberation political order can survive. If the ANC-DA alliance holds, it could stabilize the economy and restore confidence. If it fails, Malema’s EFF stands ready to exploit the chaos, pitching itself as the true voice of the marginalized.
One thing is certain: the ANC’s golden age is over. South Africa is entering a new era—one where no single party calls the shots. Whether that leads to renewal or ruin depends on whether its leaders can put the country ahead of their egos.
