The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is no stranger to conflict, but the eastern regions of the country seem to be stuck in a vicious cycle of war, negotiations, and fragile ceasefires that never hold for long. The latest chapter in this ongoing saga features the notorious M23 rebels, who have been fighting Congolese government forces for years, and a glimmer of hope as both sides prepare for their first direct talks in Doha, Qatar, on April 9.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. If history is anything to go by, peace in this part of the world is as slippery as a politician’s promise.
M23, short for the March 23 Movement, is a rebel group with roots in a 2012 mutiny by former soldiers of the Congolese army, many of whom were part of previous armed groups backed by neighboring Rwanda. After briefly seizing the city of Goma in 2012, they were pushed back and supposedly disbanded. But like all good sequels, M23 made a dramatic return in 2021, capturing vast swathes of territory in North Kivu province, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians, and setting the stage for yet another regional crisis.
The conflict has drawn in multiple players. The Congolese army, weakened by corruption and internal divisions, has struggled to dislodge the rebels. Rwanda has been repeatedly accused of backing M23—a charge Kigali denies, despite mounting evidence. Uganda, which has its own history of involvement in eastern Congo, has also been watching closely. And then there’s the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which sent a regional force to help Kinshasa reclaim lost territory.
In a recent twist, M23 rebels agreed to a ceasefire with the SADC coalition troops, who are set to withdraw. It’s a move that raises eyebrows—after all, why agree to stop fighting when you’re on the offensive? Some analysts suggest M23 is trying to strengthen its political position ahead of the Doha talks, ensuring that it enters negotiations from a position of power rather than as a weakened force.
The scheduled peace talks mark a significant shift, as this is the first time the Congolese government and M23 will sit down for direct negotiations. Previous attempts at resolving the conflict involved third-party mediators, regional leaders, and diplomatic backchannels that achieved little beyond temporary pauses in hostilities. President Félix Tshisekedi has long maintained that he won’t negotiate with “terrorists,” but with M23 still in control of large areas of eastern Congo, reality seems to have forced his hand.
For the people caught in the crossfire, the ceasefire and upcoming talks offer a faint glimmer of hope. Civilians in North Kivu have suffered through waves of displacement, massacres, and human rights abuses. Refugee camps are overflowing, and humanitarian agencies warn that the situation is reaching catastrophic levels. A deal between Kinshasa and M23 could, in theory, pave the way for some stability.
But the skeptics—of which there are many—point out that we’ve seen this movie before. M23 was supposed to be defeated in 2013. The DRC has hosted countless peace talks with armed groups, many of which simply rebrand and return to the battlefield later. The withdrawal of SADC troops raises questions about whether the Congolese army is capable of keeping M23 in check without foreign military support.
And then there’s the elephant in the room: Rwanda. Kigali has always played a shadowy role in eastern Congo’s conflicts, accused of backing M23 as a way of securing its own economic and security interests. Any peace deal that doesn’t address Rwanda’s involvement is unlikely to last.
As the world waits to see whether the Doha talks will lead to lasting peace or just another temporary truce, one thing remains clear: eastern Congo’s war is far from over. M23 has proven to be one of the most resilient armed groups in the region, and unless the underlying issues—ethnic tensions, resource control, and foreign interference—are genuinely addressed, the cycle of violence will continue.
Congolese civilians can only hope that April 9 will bring more than just another round of empty promises. But if history is any guide, they shouldn’t hold their breath.
