Somalia and Ethiopia have taken a significant step toward mending their fractured relationship, announcing the restoration of full diplomatic relations during Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Addis Ababa. This development comes after a turbulent year marked by tensions over territorial sovereignty, regional alliances, and divergent national interests.
The diplomatic fallout began when Ethiopia signed a controversial agreement with Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia, in early 2024. The memorandum of understanding, reportedly offering to recognize Somaliland’s independence in exchange for access to a Red Sea port and a military base, was met with staunch opposition from Mogadishu. Somalia declared the deal null and void, accusing Ethiopia of violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The ensuing months saw Somalia expel Ethiopia’s ambassador, shutter Ethiopian consulates in key regions, and declare Ethiopian diplomats persona non grata.
The impasse threatened to exacerbate instability in the Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with internal conflicts, economic challenges, and transnational security threats. However, diplomatic mediation by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan culminated in the Ankara Declaration in December 2024. This agreement served as a roadmap for reconciliation, emphasizing mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity while outlining steps for bilateral cooperation, particularly on trade and Ethiopia’s access to the sea.
President Mohamud’s visit to Addis Ababa marked the first high-profile meeting between the two nations since the Ankara Declaration. In a joint communiqué, Mohamudand Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pledged to enhance bilateral relations and restore full diplomatic representation in their respective capitals. The leaders emphasized that regional stability hinges on robust cooperation grounded in mutual trust and respect.
Beyond resolving their diplomatic rift, the discussions centered on advancing shared priorities in trade and security. Ethiopia’s desire for reliable access to the sea—a long-standing strategic objective—remains a pivotal issue. While the Ankara Declaration hinted at potential arrangements under Somalia’s sovereign authority, specific terms have yet to be finalized. This uncertainty extends to Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, which remains in limbo.
The reconciliation also holds broader implications for regional dynamics. Somalia’s reintegration into the East African Community (EAC) has enhanced its economic ties with neighboring states, as evidenced by Kenya’s growing trade relationship with Somalia. During Mohamud’srecent visit to Kampala, Kenyan President William Rutohighlighted the deepening economic partnership, noting that Somalia imported goods worth $38 million in the first nine months of 2024.
While the Somali-Ethiopian rapprochement is a positive development, its durability hinges on addressing lingering challenges. Regional observers caution that unresolved disputes, such as Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations and Somaliland’s status, could reignite tensions. The Horn of Africa remains a complex geopolitical arena where national interests often collide with broader regional goals.
For now, the reconciliation underscores the importance of dialogue and compromise in navigating these challenges. Mohamud’s diplomatic outreach, which has included visits to Eritrea, Djibouti, and Uganda, signals Somalia’s commitment to fostering regional cooperation. Similarly, Ethiopia’s willingness to engage constructively reflects a pragmatic recognition of the mutual benefits of stability and collaboration.
As Somalia and Ethiopia attempt to rebuild trust, their efforts might serve as a tentative model for conflict resolution in a region where historical grievances and strategic rivalries often obstruct progress. While prioritizing dialogue and mutual respect appears promising, it remains uncertain whether even deeply rooted disputes can truly be resolved through diplomacy, according to analysts. The durability of this fragile peace is far from guaranteed, as it will likely hinge on both nations’ ability—or inability—to translate goodwill into meaningful, mutually advantageous outcomes.
