In the intricate mosaic of Africa’s political landscape, Madagascar’s recent upheaval stands as a poignant reminder of the fragile balance between popular aspirations and institutional resilience. The island nation’s swift transition from Gen Z-fueled protests to a military takeover in October 2025 encapsulates a broader Pan-African narrative, where youthful demands for accountability often collide with historical patterns of authoritarian reversion. This event, marked by the ousting of President Andry Rajoelina and the ascension of Colonel Michael Randrianirina, invites a deeper comparative examination against similar episodes in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Sudan. By examining the roots of discontent, the mechanics of power shifts, and the prospects for sustainable change, we uncover how these dynamics reflect broader continent-wide challenges in fostering democratic governance amid economic precarity and external pressures.
Sparks of Revolution: The Ignition of Madagascar’s Unrest by a Restive African Gen Z
The genesis of Madagascar’s crisis lies in the everyday struggles that have become emblematic of Africa’s youthful populations, who increasingly demand tangible improvements in their quality of life. Beginning in late September 2025, demonstrations erupted in Antananarivo over chronic power outages, water shortages, and soaring living costs—issues that quickly ballooned into broader indictments of governance failures. Predominantly spearheaded by Gen Z activists, these protests utilized digital platforms to mobilize crowds, echoing tactics seen in Kenya’s 2023 finance bill uprisings and Nigeria’s 2020 #EndSARS movement against police brutality. In Madagascar, the movement’s intensity was amplified by the killing of at least 22 protesters, which fueled calls for Rajoelina’s resignation and exposed the government’s heavy-handed response.
This youth-driven fervor is not isolated; it mirrors a Pan-African trend where Gen Z, comprising over 60 percent of the continent’s population under 25, leverages social media to bypass traditional hierarchies. In Madagascar, with its population of 32 million facing poverty rates exceeding 75 percent and an average income of just $600 annually, the protests highlighted structural inequalities exacerbated by global factors, such as U.S. tariffs on vanilla exports and the non-renewal of trade agreements. Rajoelina’s attempts to quell the unrest—dismissing his cabinet and appointing a military general as prime minister—were perceived as desperate bids to retain control, ultimately backfiring as they alienated both civilians and segments of the armed forces. The elite Capsat unit’s intervention on October 14, 2025, dissolving key institutions while promising a two-year transition to elections, underscores how such movements can inadvertently pave the way for military dominance —a pattern observed in Guinea’s 2021 coup following protests against electoral manipulation.
Recurring Shadows: Madagascar’s Legacy of Instability Viewed Through a Pan-African Prism
Madagascar’s political volatility is deeply entrenched in a history that resonates with Africa’s post-colonial struggles. The 2025 takeover revives memories of coups in 1972, 1975, and 1991, as well as Rajoelina’s own 2009 ascent with Capsat backing, which delayed democratic processes for years. This repetition illustrates a vicious cycle in which civilian-led unrest invites military intervention, often under the guise of restoring order. Comparatively, Mali’s 2020 coup emerged from pro-democracy protests against President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta’s handling of insecurity and corruption, leading to a junta that promised reforms but extended its rule amid ongoing jihadist threats. Similarly, in Burkina Faso’s 2022 takeover, youth demonstrations against governance lapses in combating insurgency culminated in the rise of Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s regime, which has since prioritized security alliances over electoral timelines.
Across the continent, these events form part of a “coup belt” stretching from the Sahel to the Indian Ocean, driven by common factors like elite corruption—Madagascar ranks 140th in global corruption indices—and economic disenfranchisement. Anti-colonial sentiments also play a role; Rajoelina’s French citizenship fueled resentment similar to the anti-French rhetoric in Niger’s 2023 coup, where protesters denounced perceived neocolonial influences. Yet, beneath the surface, these shifts reveal institutional weaknesses: fragile constitutions, co-opted judiciaries, and militaries with outsized political roles. In Sudan, the 2019 revolution’s initial success in toppling Omar al-Bashir devolved into a 2021 military coup, sparking civil war and displacing millions, highlighting how unaddressed grievances can transform hope into protracted conflict. Madagascar’s case, with its rapid impeachment of Rajoelina and the junta’s swift consolidation, suggests a more streamlined but no less precarious path, potentially leading to diplomatic isolation as seen in Gabon’s 2023 post-election coup.
Amplifying the Chorus: African Gen Z as Vanguard in Pro-Democracy Mobilizations
Central to Madagascar’s narrative is the pivotal agency of African Gen Z, whose digital-native strategies are reshaping pro-democracy efforts across the continent. In Antananarivo, protesters utilized Facebook and other platforms to broadcast demands for jobs, affordable rice, and reliable electricity, much like how Sudanese youth in 2019 coordinated via WhatsApp to sustain months-long sit-ins. This generation’s approach—decentralized, tech-driven, and globally informed—challenges the paternalistic politics of older elites, demanding not just regime change but systemic equity. However, the transition from street activism to political influence remains elusive; in Madagascar, while Gen Z’s pressure forced Rajoelina’s flight, the military’s hijacking risks marginalizing them, as occurred in Chad’s 2021 transitional council, where youth voices were sidelined despite initial promises.
This dynamic underscores a Pan-African imperative for integrating Gen Z. In successful cases, such as Senegal’s 2024 elections, youth-led coalitions have influenced policy agendas on employment and education, thereby fostering stability. Conversely, failures in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo’s intermittent protests highlight how exclusion breeds cynicism and repeated unrest. Madagascar’s Gen Z movement, born from frustrations over famine in the south and pandemic mismanagement—where Rajoelina promoted unproven herbal remedies over vaccines—emphasizes the need for policies addressing climate vulnerability and health disparities. By fostering cross-generational dialogues and youth quotas in governance, African nations could harness this demographic dividend, transforming potential volatility into innovative leadership.
Navigating the Fault Lines: Political Shifts and the Role of UN-AU Interventions in Africa
The aftermath of Madagascar’s coup exemplifies the complexities of political transitions in Africa, where international bodies such as the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) play crucial yet contested roles. Following the October 14 takeover, the AU swiftly suspended Madagascar, condemning the unconstitutional change and demanding a return to civilian rule—a response mirroring its actions against Mali in 2020 and Niger in 2023. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) echoed this alarm, viewing the event as a threat to regional stability. UN officials, meanwhile, have urged dialogue and humanitarian support amid broader calls to address hunger exacerbated by such disruptions.
Compared to these interventions, they reveal both strengths and limitations. In Guinea, AU sanctions following the 2021 coup have pressured the junta toward elections, albeit delayed. However, in the Sahel’s “coup alliance” of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, regional bodies have struggled against defiant regimes that have formed alternative pacts, such as the Alliance of Sahel States. Madagascar’s junta, pledging institutional reforms and a referendum, follows a familiar playbook that often legitimizes extended military rule. Challenges abound: economic sanctions can worsen poverty, as seen in Sudan’s siege of El-Fasher amid ongoing conflict, while inconsistent enforcement erodes credibility. Effective UN-AU partnerships, through mediation teams and electoral assistance, could mitigate this by emphasizing inclusive transitions that incorporate civil society. Yet, success hinges on local buy-in to avoid perceptions of external meddling.
Visions of Renewal: Overcoming Hurdles, Fostering Inclusion, and Charting Africa’s Pro-Democracy Path
Looking ahead, Madagascar’s crisis illuminates the multifaceted obstacles confronting Africa’s pro-democracy trajectory, while offering pathways for renewal. Immediate challenges include diplomatic isolation, with the AU suspension potentially curtailing aid and trade, compounding the island’s vulnerabilities to climate shocks and insurgencies akin to Mali’s fuel blockades by al-Qaeda affiliates. Corruption and youth unemployment—over 50 percent continent-wide—fuel recurring instability, as evidenced by Nigeria’s poverty surge despite GDP growth, where protectionist policies harm the vulnerable without adequate relief.
The integration of African Gen Z holds transformative potential; envisioning youth-led advisory councils in transitions could bridge generational gaps, as seen in Tunisia’s post-2011 reforms. Pan-African efforts, such as the AU youth summits, might amplify this, countering the disillusionment that can lead to coups. The future demands a reimagined democracy: robust institutions resistant to military overreach, economic diversification beyond commodities, and regional solidarity against external pressures. If Madagascar’s uprising evolves into genuine reform—perhaps through accelerated elections and anti-corruption drives—it could inspire a ripple effect, much like Ghana’s stable transitions. Ultimately, Africa’s pro-democracy journey requires moving beyond cycles of protest and takeover toward inclusive systems that deliver prosperity, ensuring that the echoes of liberation resonate as triumphs rather than tragedies.
