The Maghreb region is witnessing an intensifying competition between Algeria and Morocco over strategic gas pipeline projects aimed at securing a dominant position in the European energy market. With Europe increasingly seeking alternatives to Russian gas in the wake of geopolitical shifts, North African countries are positioning themselves as crucial suppliers. At the heart of this contest are two ambitious projects: Algeria’s Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) and Morocco’s Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP). While both aim to channel Nigerian natural gas to Europe, their distinct routes, political underpinnings, and economic challenges make this rivalry a significant geopolitical development with far-reaching implications.
Algeria, endowed with substantial natural gas reserves, has long been a key energy partner for Europe. The TSGP, originally conceived in the 1970s but revived recently, envisions a 4,200-kilometer pipeline transporting up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Nigeria through Niger to Algeria, where it would connect to existing export routes to Europe. This project is backed by Algeria’s state-owned energy giant Sonatrach and has received political support from Nigeria and Niger. Proponents argue that the TSGP would strengthen Algeria’s position as Europe’s leading African gas supplier while enhancing the economic integration of the Sahel region.
In contrast, Morocco’s NMGP, a more recent initiative proposed in 2016, presents a coastal alternative. The pipeline would span 5,600 kilometers, passing through 11 West African countries before reaching Morocco, from where gas could be exported to Europe via Spain. Unlike the TSGP, which traverses the volatile Sahel, the NMGP aims to enhance energy security for participating West African nations while positioning Morocco as a critical transit hub. This project has secured support from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and European stakeholders keen on diversifying their energy sources.
Despite their strategic ambitions, both projects face significant challenges. Financing remains a major obstacle, with estimated costs exceeding $13 billion for the NMGP and around $20 billion for the TSGP. Given the financial constraints and political instability in key transit countries, securing investment remains uncertain. The NMGP’s reliance on multiple partners across West Africa adds layers of complexity, while the TSGP’s passage through Niger, a country facing security threats and political turmoil, raises concerns over feasibility.
Moreover, Europe’s evolving energy policies could undermine the long-term viability of these projects. The European Union’s Green Deal aims to phase out fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy by 2050. This shift raises questions about the demand for African gas in the coming decades. While short-term needs may drive investment in gas infrastructure, long-term European commitments to decarbonization present a strategic dilemma for both Algeria and Morocco.
The geopolitical dimension of this rivalry is equally crucial. The longstanding tensions between Algeria and Morocco, exacerbated by their dispute over Western Sahara, add an additional layer of competition. Algeria, a supporter of the Polisario Front, has severed diplomatic ties with Morocco and halted gas exports through the Maghreb-Europe Pipeline, further heightening tensions. The NMGP, by strengthening Morocco’s role in regional energy supply, is seen by Algeria as a direct challenge to its dominance.
Beyond bilateral tensions, the rivalry also impacts broader African energy integration. Both projects claim to promote regional economic development, yet their competition underscores the fragmentation of energy strategies within the continent. If both pipelines were to proceed, they might create redundant infrastructure and economic inefficiencies. However, collaboration remains unlikely given the entrenched political divide between Algiers and Rabat.
In sum, the competition between Algeria’s TSGP and Morocco’s NMGP encapsulates the complex interplay of energy geopolitics, economic feasibility, and regional rivalries in North Africa. While both projects aspire to reshape Africa’s role in the global energy market, their realization faces substantial hurdles. The outcome of this contest will not only shape the Maghreb’s energy landscape but also influence Europe’s energy diversification strategies in the years to come
