In northern Nigeria’s Sokoto state, once-thriving rivers now lie dry and cracked, exposing not just parched earth but the deepening vulnerability of the country’s food security. As climate change tightens its grip, the nation’s smallholder farmers—who make up more than 80% of the agricultural workforce—are finding themselves in an increasingly impossible battle to feed a growing population.
This crisis is no longer a looming threat; it’s here. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, declared a state of emergency on food security in mid-2023. But nearly a year on, the symptoms of that emergency—soaring prices, crop failures, and displaced communities—are only becoming more pronounced. The declarations have not translated into effective nationwide measures, and for many rural farmers, hope is beginning to dry up just like their riverbeds.
The paradox is painful. Nigeria has more arable land than almost any other African country, and agriculture employs a large portion of the population. Yet, food inflation in 2024 hovered above 35%, forcing more households to cut back on both quantity and quality of meals. According to market surveys in Maiduguri and Kano, staple foods like rice, maize, and tomatoes have doubled in price over the past year. The poor are eating less, and the middle class is quickly joining their ranks at the table of hunger.
Farmers in the northwest, particularly in Sokoto and Zamfara states, are struggling with dwindling water supplies. Rivers that once supported irrigation throughout the dry season are now only seasonal puddles. Without irrigation, crops wither before harvest, and livestock suffer from dehydration. Climate scientists in the region point to erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged dry spells, and rising temperatures as contributors to the current conditions. And while climate change is a global phenomenon, its impact here is hitting harder due to decades of underinvestment in rural infrastructure.
Dr. Fatima Garba, an agricultural economist at Ahmadu Bello University, puts it plainly: “We knew climate shocks were coming. But our preparedness was zero. Farmers don’t have access to modern irrigation systems, drought-resistant seeds, or even real-time weather data. The tools that should help them adapt are still locked away in research institutes or in Abuja’s policy documents.”
The result? Rural flight. Younger Nigerians are leaving the fields for cities or trying their luck abroad. Many are also turning to informal mining or, in some cases, joining criminal networks out of desperation. Insecurity in farming areas, especially due to banditry and herder-farmer conflicts, further complicates agricultural activities. In some parts of Kaduna and Katsina, farmers have abandoned their land altogether, fearing for their lives more than their livelihoods.
The government’s 2023 emergency declaration came with a long list of proposals—price stabilization, subsidized fertilizers, partnerships with local firms to expand food production—but implementation has been patchy at best. Critics point to bureaucracy, corruption, and poor coordination between federal and state governments as major roadblocks. Even well-meaning programs often don’t reach the farmers who need them most.
A pilot project in Kebbi state to distribute solar-powered irrigation kits to tomato farmers ran out of funds midway. In Borno, efforts to resettle displaced farmers with tools and seeds have been delayed due to budget constraints. Meanwhile, private sector players are hesitant to invest in agriculture due to the uncertainty and lack of protection from insecurity.
International agencies, including the World Food Programme and the FAO, have sounded the alarm repeatedly. But Nigeria’s status as both a regional power and a humanitarian crisis zone makes it a complicated case. It’s not a famine zone—yet—but it’s not far off. Chronic undernourishment is rising, particularly among children under five in northern states.
There’s a sense among many observers that this crisis is a test. Not just of Nigeria’s resilience, but of its political will. With 70% of the population under 30 and more than 40% of youth unemployed, the link between food, stability, and national security is too obvious to ignore. A hungry population is a volatile one, and history shows that food shortages often precede civil unrest.
Solutions exist. Experts have long called for strategic grain reserves, climate-resilient agriculture, and modernized irrigation. What’s lacking is urgency—and trust. Until Nigerian farmers feel supported with real tools rather than empty promises, the nation’s food crisis will only deepen.
For now, the rains are late again, and the sun is merciless. And in the fields of Sokoto, farmers wait, eyes on the sky and feet on the scorched earth, wondering whether their next harvest will be their last.