South Africa is bracing for a potential economic shock as it races to persuade the United States to delay the reimposition of 31% tariffs on key exports like steel, automobiles, and citrus fruits. The government warns the penalties could cost the economy tens of thousands of jobs, derail investment, and worsen already painful unemployment levels, especially among youth.
At the heart of Pretoria’s response is a strategic offer: energy access for trade relief. South African negotiators have proposed that American energy firms be granted favourable terms to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to help ease the country’s electricity crisis. It’s a move designed to appeal to Washington’s commercial interests while securing relief from economically devastating duties.
The tariffs in question trace back to Trump-era trade frameworks that remain partly intact under President Biden. Despite promises to rebuild alliances and prioritise Global South relationships, the Biden administration has left some of these tariff structures untouched, and South Africa is now pleading for a diplomatic carve-out before they kick in later this year.
South Africa’s automotive sector—one of its industrial backbones—is especially vulnerable. Brands like BMW and Ford produce thousands of units annually in South Africa for export to the United States. Without a waiver or delay, those exports will become significantly more expensive, threatening production levels and potentially triggering layoffs.
The citrus industry, another economic pillar, is equally exposed. In 2024, the U.S. was South Africa’s second-largest citrus export destination, behind only the EU. With peak citrus season underway, growers fear losing access to lucrative markets or being undercut by competitors like Egypt or Morocco.
Pretoria’s pitch is rooted in pragmatism: allow us to continue exporting under favourable terms, and in return, benefit from expanded LNG access and investment opportunities. The country’s energy sector is in desperate need of reliable sources, and U.S. LNG could offer both stability and geopolitical leverage.
However, not all roads are smooth. South Africa’s perceived closeness to BRICS nations—and its carefully balanced non-alignment on major geopolitical conflicts—has caused friction with Washington. Some American lawmakers are reluctant to reward a partner they see as drifting away from Western consensus. Nevertheless, diplomats from both sides continue to engage, and South Africa is also lobbying U.S. energy giants directly to support its case.
The situation reflects a broader dilemma facing middle-income countries in today’s multipolar economic landscape: how to protect national interests in a world where trade is increasingly tied to strategic alignment. South Africa’s balancing act—offering economic opportunity while defending sovereignty—may well become a blueprint for others in similar positions.
Until then, citrus exporters, steel workers, and carmakers are in limbo, hoping Pretoria’s “tariff diplomacy” delivers more than polite conversation. As one government official put it, “We’re not looking for favours. We’re trying to avoid disaster.”
