Libya has been grappling with political instability and institutional fragmentation for over a decade, with efforts to establish a unified government repeatedly faltering. The country has remained mired in crisis since the 2011 NATO-backed overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi, with successive transitional authorities failing to lay the groundwork for long-term stability. In a new attempt to break the deadlock, the United Nations has launched an initiative aimed at addressing Libya’s electoral impasse and paving the way for long-overdue national elections.
Stephanie Koury, the U.N. deputy special envoy for Libya, announced the establishment of an advisory committee composed of experts and stakeholders drawn from across Libya’s political and social spectrum. The committee is tasked with formulating recommendations to resolve key electoral disputes and establish a clear roadmap for elections. The initiative comes in response to mounting frustration among Libyans and the international community over the persistent delays in holding a vote that was initially scheduled for December 2021.
Libya’s political landscape has been deeply fractured since that postponed election, which was meant to mark a new chapter in the country’s transition to democracy. The failure to hold the vote resulted in a power struggle between two rival administrations—one based in the west, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and another in the east, backed by military commander Khalifa Haftar and the eastern-based House of Representatives. Each faction has sought to assert legitimacy, leading to sporadic outbreaks of violence, economic disruptions, and a deepening governance crisis.
The United Nations’ new approach seeks to bridge these divides by fostering dialogue among Libya’s competing factions. The advisory committee, as outlined by Koury, will include representatives from key political groups, civil society organizations, tribal leaders, and legal experts to ensure a broad-based and inclusive decision-making process. The ultimate goal is to reach consensus on contentious electoral laws, including eligibility criteria for presidential candidates and the sequencing of presidential and parliamentary elections.
Previous international efforts to resolve Libya’s crisis have been hampered by regional rivalries and external interference. The country’s vast oil wealth has attracted competing foreign interests, with various international actors backing different factions. The U.N. hopes that its latest initiative will be seen as a neutral and constructive mechanism for advancing Libya’s political process. However, the success of the effort will depend largely on the willingness of domestic political elites to compromise and the extent of international support for the initiative.
One of the primary challenges facing the advisory committee is the lack of trust among Libya’s political factions. Over the years, multiple agreements and ceasefires have collapsed due to disputes over power-sharing arrangements and security provisions. To counter this, the U.N. is emphasizing the importance of establishing clear electoral rules that are agreed upon by all major stakeholders. The initiative also seeks to enhance institutional legitimacy by ensuring that any future elections are administered by a competent and impartial electoral body, capable of overseeing a transparent voting process.
The broader implications of Libya’s prolonged crisis extend beyond its borders. The country’s instability has fueled transnational security concerns, including arms smuggling, human trafficking, and the proliferation of militant groups. A resolution to Libya’s political impasse would not only benefit its citizens but also contribute to regional stability, particularly in the Sahel and Mediterranean regions. This adds urgency to the U.N.’s efforts, as a failure to break the deadlock could exacerbate existing security threats.
Despite the initiative’s ambitious goals, skepticism remains regarding its prospects for success. Previous U.N.-led processes, such as the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, initially raised hopes but ultimately failed to produce lasting agreements. The risk of spoilers—actors who benefit from the status quo and may seek to derail the process—remains high. Additionally, the involvement of external powers with vested interests in Libya’s political and economic landscape complicates mediation efforts.
Nevertheless, the U.N.’s renewed push reflects a recognition that the status quo is untenable. Without a political breakthrough, Libya risks sliding further into division and instability. By fostering an inclusive dialogue and addressing the root causes of the electoral impasse, the advisory committee could provide a viable path toward national elections. Whether Libya’s political factions will seize this opportunity to move toward a sustainable resolution remains uncertain, but the initiative represents a critical step in the ongoing search for stability in the country.
