Echoes of Endurance: Unraveling Madagascar’s Cycles of Instability
Madagascar’s political history is a tapestry woven from threads of colonial legacy, post-independence authoritarianism, and repeated interruptions by military interventions, creating a volatile arena where civilian governance often yields to force amid widespread discontent. Since gaining independence from France in 1960, the nation has navigated through dictatorships, such as Didier Ratsiraka’s socialist regime in the 1970s and 1980s, marked by economic isolation and famine, followed by multiparty experiments that frequently devolved into patronage-driven politics. The 2009 coup that propelled Andry Rajoelina to power—initially as a de facto leader after ousting Marc Ravalomanana—exemplified this pattern, in which protests over electoral disputes and economic mismanagement attracted military backing, only to entrench new elites. Fast-forward to 2025, and the ouster of Rajoelina on October 12, triggered by Gen Z-led protests that erupted from September 25 over chronic infrastructural failures such as power blackouts and water scarcity, mirrors these historical pivots while introducing a fresh generational dynamic. University campuses in Antananarivo, meant to symbolize progress, instead epitomize decay: crumbling residences plagued by sewage leaks, erratic electricity halting studies, and meager government stipends—often delayed for months—forcing students to hawk goods like dried bananas to survive. With 75% of the 32 million population mired in poverty, agriculture battered by cyclones and droughts, and GDP per capita halving since independence, these conditions reflect systemic rot, including corruption scandals and aid dependency that have hollowed out public services. The protests, escalating into deadly clashes with security forces, culminated in parliamentary impeachment on October 14 and Rajoelina’s flight abroad, paving the way for the elite CAPSAT unit’s intervention. This upheaval, while echoing past coups, underscores a burgeoning youth agency demanding not mere regime change but structural redress, challenging the island’s entrenched loop of elite resurgence and resource plunder.
Digital Flames: Gen Z’s Mobilization and Transnational Sparks
The Gen Z uprising in Madagascar represents a seismic shift in activist paradigms, leveraging digital ecosystems to forge a movement that transcends traditional opposition silos and amplifies grassroots fury into national upheaval. Inspired by Nepal’s contemporaneous youth demonstrations and global icons of resistance, Malagasy students launched the Gen Z Ankatso Facebook page, customizing an anime skull emblem with local cultural motifs to rally peers against decades of neglect. At the University of Antananarivo, where dormitories evoke slums more than scholarly havens—overcrowded rooms sans plumbing, students hauling water in buckets and sharing foam mats—organizers like 24-year-old Fabio Tsiresy and pharmacology student Jerossa Safidiharimanjato voiced the unbearable: inhumane conditions stifling aspirations in a youth bulge where unemployment soars and education promises evaporate. This cohort, comprising over half the population under 25, harnessed social media not just for coordination but narrative control, framing demands around anti-corruption, service delivery, and equitable growth, drawing parallels to Kenya’s 2024 anti-tax youth surges or Nigeria’s EndSARS echoes. Protests spread from campuses to streets, targeting politicians’ homes and exposing regime vulnerabilities, with clashes claiming lives and fracturing military loyalty. Post-ouster, Gen Z’s ambivalence shines through: jubilation at Rajoelina’s exit tempered by wariness over military stewardship, as seen in backlash against Prime Minister Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo’s appointment, viewed by activists as emblematic of old-guard continuity. Figures like film director Anthony Relisa decry the sidelining of their sacrifices, insisting the movement’s digital prowess—evident in viral footage of defiance—positions youth as veto-holders against co-optation. Yet, sustaining this momentum demands bridging online fervor with offline governance, navigating literacy gaps in rural expanses, and countering fatigue from economic precarity, where Gen Z’s power lies in perpetual readiness to “rise again,” as medical student Anja’ndraina Andrianaivo affirms.
Uniformed Guardianship: Dissecting the Interim Power Structure
The ascension of Colonel Michael Randrianirina, a 51-year-old CAPSAT commander once imprisoned in 2023 for alleged coup plotting, ushers in a transitional architecture blending martial authority with civilian facades, sworn in on October 17 amid public cheers and select diplomatic nods, yet fraught with risks of prolongation. Heading a military-led committee slated for up to two years before polls, Randrianirina’s regime unveiled a 29-member cabinet on October 28, predominantly civilian (25 members) with opposition stalwarts like Christine Razanamahasoa as foreign minister and exiled critic Fanirisoa Ernaivo in justice, signaling intent to purge Rajoelina loyalists while appointing economists like Hery Ramiarison to finance for tackling fiscal hemorrhage. Security portfolios remain militarized, reflecting the junta’s grip, as the administration pledges urgent fixes to protest catalysts—rampant outages rooted in dilapidated grids and climate shocks—alongside job creation and graft curbs. Initial overtures, including dialogues with Gen Z leaders in which Randrianirina vowed protection for their “sacrifices,” evoke guarded optimism, contrasting with Rajoelina’s repressive gendarmerie tactics. However, youth ire over parliamentary elevations of figures like Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, a perennial politician, fuels suspicions of elite recycling, while Rajoelina’s exile defiance and High Constitutional Court ratification add legal friction. The African Union’s swift suspension post-coup, following an October 13 Peace and Security Council emergency huddle, isolates Madagascar regionally and jeopardizes aid inflows vital to an economy reeling from per capita output erosion and foreign debt. This hybrid model, promising activist inclusion, tests whether Randrianirina can emulate aspirational pan-African juntas or revert to the stasis of predecessors, where temporary rule calcifies into autocracy, demanding verifiable reforms to avert youth disillusionment.
Continental Ripples: Madagascar in Africa’s Protest-Coup Nexus
Madagascar’s convulsions resonate within Africa’s burgeoning template of youth-orchestrated dissent, yielding military custodians and illuminating a continental fatigue with hollow democracies where corruption devours the dividends of growth. Analogous to Burkina Faso’s 2022 pivot under Ibrahim Traoré—hailed by Malagasy youth for its resource sovereignty and anti-Western rhetoric—or to Mali’s recurrent interventions following the 2020 protests, this “streets to barracks” arc underscores Gen Z’s role in eroding regime legitimacy across the Sahel and beyond. In Sudan and Niger, similar uprisings against kleptocracy have invited juntas promising renewal, yet often delivering deferred elections, media muzzling, and resource nationalism laced with repression, as critiqued by observers like the International Crisis Group. Madagascar’s isolation as an Indian Ocean sentinel amplifies its exemplar status, where digital-native movements foster pan-African synergies, from shared anti-corruption hashtags to inspirations drawn from Traoré’s defiance. UN-AU collaborative thrusts advocating hybrid missions and transitional benchmarks provide scaffolding for inclusive pacts, but local schisms—evident in Gen Z’s PM rebuff—hinder buy-in. Broader headwinds, including climate-induced scarcities exacerbating grievances and Western aid conditionalities clashing with sovereignty appeals, frame Madagascar’s stakes: harnessing youth vitality to dismantle patronage fortresses, or witnessing another cycle where coups consolidate rather than catalyze equity.
Pathways to Renewal: Navigating Uncertainty Toward Inclusive Governance
As Madagascar stands at this inflection, the trajectory pivots on translating protest impetus into institutional fortitude, with Gen Z’s vigilance serving as both catalyst and litmus test of legitimacy. Randrianirina’s nascent pledges—ministerial overhauls and Gen Z consultations—afford opportunities to embed youth in policy arenas, potentially evolving the junta into a steward of electoral integrity and service resurrection. Paramount challenges loom: reconciling barracks discipline with democratic pluralism, insulating against economic tailspins amid AU ostracism and Rajoelina’s lingering influence, and fortifying anti-corruption bulwarks to reclaim squandered resources from vanilla exports to biodiversity treasures. European overtures for engagement, as floated in policy circles, could bolster capacity without strings, fostering models in which youth forums shape budgets and oversight. Yet, precedents warn of fragility: without swift, tangible outcomes like grid stabilization and stipend reliability, Gen Z’s empowerment—honed in Antananarivo’s streets—may ignite redux mobilizations. In this forge of aspiration and adversity, Madagascar charts a blueprint for Africa’s democratic reinvention, where generational audacity confronts inertial forces, beckoning a polity rooted in accountability if steered with prudence and inclusion, lest ephemeral triumphs dissolve into entrenched malaise.
