In May 2025, Ethiopia’s National Election Board (NEBE) deregistered the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a significant political party in the country’s history and the current administrator of Tigray. This decision has sparked a heated dispute, with the TPLF arguing it jeopardizes the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended the devastating Tigray War. The Ethiopian government, however, insists it is a legal necessity, not a breach of peace. As the African Union (AU) is urged to mediate, internal TPLF conflicts and tensions with Eritrea add layers of complexity. This article explores the deregistration, the arguments from both sides, and its potential consequences for Ethiopia’s fragile stability.
The Tigray War and Pretoria Agreement
The Tigray War
The Tigray War (2020–2022) was a catastrophic conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the TPLF, which had dominated Ethiopian politics for decades before losing power in 2018. Joined by Eritrean forces, the war caused immense suffering, with estimates of 385,000 to 600,000 deaths and millions displaced due to fighting, famine, and atrocities.
The Pretoria Agreement
Signed in November 2022 under AU mediation, the Pretoria Agreement halted the war. Key terms included:
- A ceasefire between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF.
- The TPLF’s disarmament within 30 days.
- Political recognition of the TPLF and Tigray’s representation in federal structures.
- Humanitarian aid access to Tigray.
While a milestone, the agreement’s implementation has faced hurdles, setting the stage for the current crisis.
The Deregistration of the TPLF
What Happened?
On May 13, 2025, the NEBE deregistered the TPLF for failing to hold a general assembly, a requirement under Ethiopia’s electoral laws. The TPLF had been reinstated as a legal party in August 2024, contingent on meeting these conditions. However, internal disputes prevented compliance, leading to a three-month suspension in February 2025 and, ultimately, deregistration.
The TPLF’s Reaction
The TPLF labeled the move a “direct violation” of the Pretoria Agreement, claiming it threatens their political rights and Tigray’s stability. In a May 15, 2025, appeal to the AU, they warned of “serious repercussions” and called for urgent mediation.
Perspectives on the Deregistration
The Ethiopian Government’s Stance
The government asserts that the deregistration is a legal action, not a political one. The NEBE states that all parties must adhere to electoral regulations, and the TPLF’s failure to hold an assembly left no alternative. They argue this does not affect the Pretoria Agreement, which focuses on peace, not party registration.
The TPLF’s View
The TPLF counters that the deregistration nullifies their role as a recognized political entity under the peace deal. They see it as a deliberate effort to exclude them from future elections—particularly the 2026 vote—violating the agreement’s intent and risking renewed conflict.
Broader Implications
Internal TPLF Divisions
The TPLF’s troubles are compounded by infighting. In March 2025, a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael ousted Getachew Reda in a coup in Mekelle. Reda, now aligned with Addis Ababa, has deepened the party’s disarray, weakening its response to the crisis.
Regional Tensions with Eritrea
Eritrea’s role adds further strain. Alleged to have supported the TPLF coup, Eritrea’s deteriorating ties with Ethiopia—over issues like Red Sea access—have led to troop buildups along borders, heightening fears of regional escalation.
The African Union’s Role
The AU, instrumental in the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, faces pressure to act. An April 2025 proposal to reinstate the TPLF’s status awaits a formal response, underscoring the AU’s pivotal yet uncertain role in averting a breakdown.
Conclusion
Ethiopia’s deregistration of the TPLF tests the resilience of the 2022 peace process. The government views it as a routine legal step, but the TPLF sees a threat to their existence and the region’s stability. With internal splits, Eritrea’s shadow, and the AU’s indecision, the stakes are high. Dialogue is urgently needed to prevent a slide back into violence. The TPLF could seek re-registration before 2026, but resolving these deeper tensions will determine whether peace endures.
